2026 California Governor Race: Steve Hilton vs. Xavier Becerra

Last Updated on 16/06/2026 by TinHN Editor

California’s 2026 governor race is the most closely watched open-seat contest in the entire midterm cycle. With incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom term-limited and ineligible to run, voters will choose the next leader of the world’s fifth-largest economy on November 3, 2026. The race pits Republican Steve Hilton — a former Fox News host backed by President Trump — against Democrat Xavier Becerra, a veteran politician whose comeback from single-digit polling to primary front-runner is one of the most surprising stories of the 2026 election season.

This article covers both candidates’ profiles, how the primary unfolded, current general election polling, and what analysts say about November.

How the Primary Played Out

California uses a nonpartisan blanket primary, where all candidates regardless of party appear on one ballot and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election. The June 2 primary drew a wide and crowded field.

In the final weeks before the primary, polls showed a tight three-way battle at the top. Democrat Xavier Becerra led at 23–28%, with Republican Steve Hilton at 20–26% and fellow Democrat Tom Steyer — a billionaire climate activist who self-funded his campaign to the tune of $213 million — close behind. Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco was polling in the low double digits, raising concerns among Democrats about a potential vote-splitting scenario where two Republicans advanced instead of two Democrats.

On primary night, early results showed Hilton leading with 29% of the vote when the first tally dropped. As mail-in ballots were counted in the following days — California’s heavy reliance on mail-in voting means results often take weeks to finalize — Becerra rose steadily, eventually taking first place. By the time 88% of expected ballots were counted, Becerra held 28% and Hilton 25%, with Steyer eliminated at roughly 23%.

The Associated Press projected Becerra as the top finisher; NBC News projected Hilton into the second spot shortly after, officially setting up the Becerra–Hilton general election matchup for November 3.

Who Is Xavier Becerra?

Xavier Becerra brings one of the longer political résumés in the race. He served as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives representing Los Angeles for over two decades, then as California’s Attorney General — where he became a leading voice in legal challenges to Trump administration policies during Trump’s first term. Most recently, he served as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Biden from 2021 to 2025.

His path to the primary top spot was anything but linear. For much of the campaign, Becerra lingered in the low single digits as the field remained crowded with better-funded and higher-profile rivals. His campaign turned in April, when then-Rep. Eric Swalwell — who had been gaining in polls and accumulating endorsements — abruptly dropped out of the race following sexual assault and misconduct allegations. Swalwell has denied the allegations. His exit consolidated progressive-leaning Democratic voters behind Becerra, who quickly surged. By primary day, Becerra had positioned himself as the experienced, steady choice against a Democratic field that had been fragmenting.

Core Platform:

• Position himself as California’s chief antagonist to Trump’s federal agenda
• Defend the state’s climate and environmental regulations
• Maintain California’s expansive social services and healthcare access
• Leverage his HHS experience on healthcare affordability

Key Quote: “I am ready to lead the fight to uphold California’s promise to make sure we have the governance worthy of our gifts.”

Who Is Steve Hilton?

Steve Hilton is a British-American political commentator and entrepreneur who hosted the Fox News program The Next Revolution and previously worked as a senior adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron. He moved to Silicon Valley and became a prominent voice in Republican circles before entering electoral politics.

Hilton secured roughly 25% of the California primary vote — a strong performance in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans roughly 2 to 1. His campaign consolidated conservative support across the state with an unapologetically anti-establishment message, pledging to fundamentally break with 16 years of uninterrupted Democratic control of California’s governor’s office.

Trump endorsed Hilton and campaigned on the idea that California needed dramatic change, not incrementalism.

Core Platform:

• Cut California’s state income tax and eliminate the state gas tax
• Slash environmental regulations he characterizes as anti-growth
• Boost domestic oil drilling and energy production within the state
• Crack down on homelessness with stricter enforcement policies
• Reduce government spending and the size of state bureaucracy

Key Quote: “Change is coming to California, and it’s long overdue.”

Hilton performed strongly in Orange County, the Inland Empire, and the Central Valley — regions where Republican-leaning voters dominate. However, those areas are also more sparsely populated compared to the Democratic strongholds of Los Angeles and San Diego counties.

General Election Polling: Becerra Leads by Wide Margin

The first post-primary poll — conducted by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies — delivered a stark finding for Hilton’s path to victory.

Berkeley IGS Poll (June 2026):

• Xavier Becerra: 52%
• Steve Hilton: 31%
• Undecided: 17%

The 21-point gap reflects the structural challenge facing any Republican running statewide in California. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried California by 20 percentage points over Donald Trump. Hilton is running in an environment where the Democratic base is energized, the state’s voter registration advantage is substantial, and the most populous counties — Los Angeles and San Diego — are deeply hostile to the Republican brand.

Becerra’s coalition in the poll is broad across demographic lines. Among Black voters, 51% support Becerra compared to 19% for Hilton. Among Latino voters — a critical demographic in California — 52% back Becerra against 28% for Hilton.

Hilton’s strongest geographic areas are Orange County, the Inland Empire, and the Central Valley. While he is competitive in those regions, the vote margins he can generate there are unlikely to offset Becerra’s advantages in the state’s most populous urban areas.

What Analysts Say: Is This Race Competitive?

Objectively, the structural environment in California makes a Republican governor victory a long-shot. The last Republican to win the California governorship was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who won re-election in 2006 — a different political era. Democrats outnumber Republicans in voter registration by approximately 2 to 1, and the state has trended more Democratic at every level since 2016.

However, there are conditions under which the race becomes more interesting:

The case for Hilton closing the gap:

• California faces genuine crises — housing affordability, homelessness, business flight — that give voters concrete grievances beyond party ID
• If economic anxiety intensifies and voters want a change agent, Hilton’s outsider brand could resonate beyond the Republican base
• Tom Steyer voters (who backed a Democrat with an anti-establishment economic message) may be persuadable rather than automatic Becerra voters
• 17% undecided in the first poll is a meaningful number; the contest for those voters is the real race

The case for Becerra holding his lead:

• The voter registration math is daunting — Hilton would need to win independents by a historically large margin and peel off a significant number of Democratic voters
• Becerra’s framing as the fighter against Trump resonates in a state where Trump is deeply unpopular
• The generic Democratic advantage on issues like climate, healthcare, and abortion holds strongly in California
• Hilton’s positions on environmental regulations and oil drilling run directly counter to majorities of California voters in polling on those issues

Most analysts categorize this race as Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat — a Democratic hold barring an extraordinary shift in the political environment.

Why This Race Matters Beyond California

California’s governor race carries national significance on several dimensions.

For Republicans: A competitive showing by Hilton — even in defeat — would signal that Republicans can contest traditionally blue turf and force Democrats to spend resources in their own backyard. A strong Hilton performance could set him up for future races or validate the Trump-endorsed, anti-regulation playbook in a high-profile setting.

For Democrats: Becerra’s campaign is explicitly built on the anti-Trump frame — positioning California as the bulwark against federal policy. A strong Becerra win would reinforce Democratic strength in the most populous state and provide a model for how Democrats can use Trump opposition as an organizing principle even in environments where they’re already dominant.

For the midterm narrative: If Republicans are being talked about as close in California, it either signals a wave environment nationally or reflects California-specific factors. Conversely, a large Becerra win would be read as confirmation of the national Democratic environment that other forecasters are already projecting.

Key Dates

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the California governor primary in 2026? Xavier Becerra (D) finished first with approximately 28% of the primary vote; Steve Hilton (R) finished second with approximately 25%. Tom Steyer (D) was eliminated in third place. Both Becerra and Hilton advance to the November 3 general election.

What is the current polling in the California governor race? The first post-primary poll (Berkeley IGS, June 2026) shows Becerra leading Hilton 52% to 31%, with 17% undecided. The poll reflects California’s deep Democratic lean.

Who endorsed Steve Hilton? President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton, who campaigned on a platform of cutting taxes, slashing regulations, and reversing 16 years of Democratic control in Sacramento.

Who is Xavier Becerra? Becerra is a longtime California politician — former U.S. Representative, former California Attorney General, and former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Biden. He made a dramatic comeback in the primary after the leading Democratic candidate, Eric Swalwell, dropped out in April following misconduct allegations.

Is this race actually competitive? Structurally, this is a Likely Democrat race. California has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006, and Democrats outnumber Republicans roughly 2 to 1 in voter registration. Hilton would need a historically unusual coalition to win. However, California’s housing and affordability crises give him a platform for the general election argument that goes beyond partisanship.

For the full picture of the 2026 midterm cycle, see our 2026 Midterm Elections overview and Primary Results tracker.

Last updated: June 2026.